Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 0.017671 0.020029 0.022589 0.025576 0.028968 0.032700 0.037121
2025-06-08 0.013713 0.016897 0.020655 0.025423 0.031318 0.038379 0.047495
2025-06-15 0.011914 0.015536 0.020063 0.026143 0.034114 0.044232 0.058091
2025-06-22 0.010041 0.013711 0.018513 0.025271 0.034563 0.046932 0.064716
2025-06-29 0.008798 0.012502 0.017546 0.024938 0.035530 0.050225 0.072266
2025-07-06 0.007645 0.011255 0.016348 0.024084 0.035588 0.052146 0.077940
2025-07-13 0.007181 0.010922 0.016378 0.024946 0.038132 0.057771 0.089465
2025-07-20 0.006720 0.010535 0.016270 0.025556 0.040309 0.062993 0.100816
2025-07-27 0.006360 0.010257 0.016283 0.026328 0.042770 0.068816 0.113606
2025-08-03 0.005839 0.009667 0.015745 0.026155 0.043672 0.072208 0.122714
2025-08-10 0.005413 0.009188 0.015335 0.026134 0.044795 0.076012 0.132800
2025-08-17 0.004954 0.008609 0.014703 0.025671 0.045106 0.078444 0.140694
2025-08-24 0.004674 0.008320 0.014547 0.026035 0.046917 0.083671 0.154152
2025-08-31 0.004329 0.007885 0.014102 0.025849 0.047734 0.087220 0.164923
2025-09-07 0.004159 0.007748 0.014168 0.026583 0.050279 0.094086 0.182500
2025-09-14 0.003774 0.007180 0.013401 0.025696 0.049697 0.095086 0.188883
2025-09-21 0.003501 0.006799 0.012947 0.025357 0.050120 0.097998 0.199249
2025-09-28 0.003189 0.006313 0.012253 0.024489 0.049420 0.098652 0.205091
2025-10-05 0.003111 0.006283 0.012434 0.025366 0.052283 0.106596 0.226690
2025-10-12 0.003009 0.006193 0.012488 0.025986 0.054669 0.113762 0.247306
2025-10-19 0.002930 0.006143 0.012617 0.026772 0.057461 0.121994 0.270985
2025-10-26 0.002759 0.005888 0.012305 0.026595 0.058177 0.125887 0.285424
2025-11-02 0.002617 0.005681 0.012075 0.026574 0.059226 0.130574 0.302075